Things do not look good for the National party, Trevor Mallard has released three National policies over the last week. That’s not a good look at all. It’s very untidy. It’s also pretty unprecedented. No longer can the Nats claim to have just left things on cafe tables. Its pretty obvious that things are being leaked. But why?
There are probably three reasons why these leaks are occuring, and im yet to decide which one is the most convincing.
Option A: Internal Party struggles
The framing of the National Party election strategy is to offer John Key as the inevitable succesor to Helen Clark’s nine year term. Therefore John Key is central to thier election platform. He’s everywhere, on Stephen Franks’ billboards, all over the National Party’s website, and on most party literature. The benefit of this is that all things National become all things John Key by extension – and vice versa. However, this can have the unintended effect of tarring Key with the National Party’s fuck ups. When the Nats take a hit, so does Key.
Why is this interesting? It’s interesting because the leaks could be the concerted campaign of a few anti Key campaigners within the National Party caucus. It must be remembered that the National front bench is a tight knit and long suffering crew. They are the same bunch that were active in the 90’s. Key wasn’t part of that crowd and there’s room for speculation that he is not yet accepted by the inner circle. So the continued leak of policies harms Key’s image. But the leaks are not so damaging as to scuttle the Party’s electoral chances. Is the pressure being put on Key already? Is Bill frothing at the bit for another bite at the apple?
Option 2: Dirty Tricks
The Nats were able to largely mitigate the fallout of the leak at the National Part conference by claiming that it was part of a dirty tricks campaign. It was the same response that they used after Nick Hager was leaked emails from Don Brash’s office. And it resonated with certain aspects of the NZ polity. Perhaps by intentionally leaking policies to Mallard the Nats are expecting to gain more legitimacy with their dirty tricks line. No one likes politicians ‘stealing’ policies from the other side, and part of that attack is the perception of Mallard being nasty and Machiavellian. Perhaps the Nats are trying to frame the issue in this light – by leaking minor policies to Mallard.
Option 3: Pure Human Error
The Nats so far have been a little “exuberant” and have “not chosen their words well”. They havent been able to maintian the slick political machine image they might have wished for. Perhaps these leaks are the result of human error. Extraordinarily three different policies my have been left lying around Wellington by accident. It’s unlikely, but we can’t rule it out entirely. But I’d be very surprised if it was the case.